Everything below comes from First Fun's published probability table and from arithmetic done on it. No estimates, no "from experience", no numbers we cannot show the working for.
Where this table comes from, and its limit. This is the disclosure First Fun publishes for its Korean service, where probability publication is a legal requirement. We have not found an equivalent published table for other regions, so we cannot promise these are the rates on your server — only that they are the rates the publisher has committed to in writing somewhere. If you find a published table for another region that differs, that one wins for your server.
Hero Recruitment, per pull
| Rarity | Chance |
|---|---|
| UR | 3.0000% |
| SSR | 13.0000% |
| SR | 39.0000% |
| R | 45.0000% |
The guarantees, which are once per account
- 1st pull — SR guaranteed.
- 10th pull — SSR guaranteed.
- 50th pull — UR guaranteed.
- After that: an SSR every 10 pulls, and the UR pity at 50.
These first-time guarantees apply once to the account, not once per banner. A brand-new account is genuinely a better deal than a mature one on its next 50 pulls — that part of the folklore is true.
What 3.00% and a 50-pity actually mean
Cumulative chance of having at least one UR by a given pull, calculated from the table above:
| Pulls | Hero Recruitment | Survivor Recruitment |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3.00% | 6.67% |
| 5 | 14.13% | 29.18% |
| 10 | 26.26% | 49.84% |
| 20 | 45.62% | 74.84% |
| 23 | 50.37% | 79.54% |
| 30 | 59.90% | 87.38% |
| 40 | 70.43% | 93.67% |
| 49 | 77.52% | 96.60% |
| 50 | 100.00% (pity) | 100.00% (pity) |
Three readings that change how you plan:
- The average UR costs 26.06 pulls — not 33 (which is what 1 ÷ 0.03 would suggest), because the pity truncates the unlucky tail.
- Half of all players have theirs by pull 23. If you are past 23 with nothing, you are in the unlucky half, but you are not unusual.
- 22.48% of players reach 50 with nothing. More than one in five. If you are budgeting for a specific UR, budget for the full 50 — because that is the only number that is actually guaranteed.
Survivor Recruitment
| Rarity | Chance |
|---|---|
| UR | 6.6667% |
| SSR | 18.6667% |
| SR | 6.6667% |
| R | 45.7778% |
| N | 22.2222% |
Same 50-pull pity, more than double the base UR rate, and a coin-flip by pull 10 rather than pull 23.
Two seasonal banners with different numbers
The published table also covers limited banners whose English names we have not been able to confirm, so we describe them rather than invent names:
- A hero-return banner — UR 3%, SSR 13%, SR 59%, R 25%. Same UR rate, a much heavier SR floor.
- A legend-revival banner — UR 24.5000% with a 20-pull pity (on the dedicated weapon fragment selection box). Roughly eight times the base UR rate and a pity less than half as long. If you are saving for anything, save for this one.
What we did not include, and why the numbers would move
The published table says only that a guaranteed SSR arrives every 10 pulls. It does not say whether that guarantee blocks a UR on pulls 10, 20, 30 and 40, or whether it means "SSR or better" so a UR still counts. We could not resolve it from the table, so we left it out of the calculation entirely. If the guarantee does block URs on those pulls, every cumulative figure above drops slightly.
Rate figures are transcribed from the publisher's own probability disclosure. The cumulative percentages, the 26.06 average and the 22.48% pity share are our arithmetic on those figures, not the publisher's.